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Markets finally caught a break last week, posting their first weekly gains in six weeks. A mix of ceasefire optimism on Iran, a surprise jobs report, and some relief in oil prices gave investors a reason to buy. But with the Iran conflict now entering its sixth week, an April 6 deadline set by President Trump still looming, and major inflation data due this week, the respite may be short-lived. Here is what you need to know.
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📊 Market Snapshot — Week Ending April 2, 2026
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INDEX / ASSET
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CLOSE
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WK CHANGE
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YTD
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S&P 500
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6,582.69
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▲ 3.36%
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▼ 3.8%
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Dow Jones
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46,504.67
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▲ 2.96%
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▼ 3.3%
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Nasdaq Comp.
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21,879.18
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▲ 4.44%
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▼ 5.6%
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Russell 2000
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2,530.04
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▲ 3.28%
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▲ 1.9%
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Brent Crude Oil
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~$107
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▼ ~3%
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▲ ~55%
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Gold (Spot)
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~$4,703
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▲ 0.49%
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▲ ~21%
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10-Yr Treasury
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4.31%
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▼ 13 bps
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▲ 39 bps
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VIX (Fear Index)
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23.87
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▼ 7.18 — Improving
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Note: Last trading day of week was Thursday, April 2, markets closed Good Friday. Brent Crude and Gold are approximate; please verify. Data sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Schwab, as of April 2, 2026 close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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📉 What Drove Markets Last Week
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After six straight weeks of losses, markets finally found their footing. The week was still volatile; Trump’s Wednesday night speech rattled investors, but a combination of ceasefire hints, strong jobs data, and falling oil prices gave bulls enough fuel to push indices meaningfully higher.
Iran — Hope Returned, Then Got Complicated
Iran’s president was reported to have asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, triggering a sharp Tuesday rally, the S&P 500’s best single day since May 2025, with the index surging 2.9%. Oil pulled back toward $100 a barrel. But Wednesday night, Trump said military operations would “intensify over the next two to three weeks” and warned he could still target Iranian energy infrastructure by April 6. Stocks gave back some gains and oil spiked again. It was one step forward, one step sideways, which has been the pattern of this entire conflict.
Jobs Report — A Big Surprise Nobody Could Trade
The March Nonfarm Payrolls report dropped Friday morning on Good Friday, when markets were closed. The number was a genuine shock; 178,000 jobs were added versus the 60,000 economists expected. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3% and wage growth moderated to 3.5% annually. Markets could not react in real time, meaning Monday morning is the first chance investors have to digest this data.
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The catch: hiring decisions in March were largely made in February, before the full weight of the Iran conflict hit. The strong jobs number may be a lagging signal, not a real-time read on the economy. Markets know this, which is why Monday’s reaction may be more muted than the headline suggests.
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Nike — A Warning Shot for the Consumer
Nike reported Tuesday after the close and fell 14% on Wednesday, its worst day in over a year. The stock is now down nearly 30% in 2026. As a global bellwether for consumer spending, this sends a clear message; high energy prices and economic uncertainty are starting to squeeze the average consumer, even for well-loved brands.
Treasury Yields — A Welcome Pullback
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.31%, down from 4.44% the prior week. This eased pressure on stocks, particularly rate-sensitive sectors. The VIX fear gauge dropped from 31 to under 24, a meaningful improvement, though still elevated by historical standards.
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🔭 What to Watch This Week (April 6 – 10)
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Last week was the holiday-shortened one, with markets closed Good Friday. This week is a full trading week, and it is packed with consequential data and a geopolitical wildcard. Here is what matters:
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK
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Mon 4/6
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Trump’s Iran Deadline • ISM Services PMI (Mar) • Markets react to Friday’s Jobs Report
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Tue 4/7
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ADP Employment Change • Durable Goods Orders • Consumer Inflation Expectations
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Wed 4/8
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FOMC Minutes Released • Earnings: Constellation Brands, Delta Air Lines
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Thu 4/9
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PCE Inflation (Feb) • GDP Final Q4 • Weekly Jobless Claims • Earnings: Levi Strauss
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Fri 4/10
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CPI — March Inflation Report • Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
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◆
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April 6 Iran Deadline (Monday) — The single most important event of the week. Trump previously signaled he could attack Iranian energy infrastructure if no deal was reached. A ceasefire or extension is bullish for stocks and bearish for oil. An escalation would do the opposite, and sharply.
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CPI — March Inflation (Friday) — The first inflation reading to capture any early oil pass-through. A hotter-than-expected print complicates the Fed’s path even further and could weigh on the recent market bounce.
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FOMC Minutes (Wednesday) — The Fed’s March meeting notes will reveal how divided policymakers are and what they were debating. Any hints about the bar for rate hikes will be closely watched.
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PCE Inflation + GDP (Thursday) — The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for February and the final Q4 GDP reading. PCE is expected to remain elevated. Markets will also be watching jobless claims for any early signs of labor market softening.
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Monday morning is set up to be one of the most volatile opens of the year. The jobs number was strong, but the Iran deadline looms large. If Trump announces an extension or a deal, expect a sharp rally. If he escalates, expect a sharp sell-off. Position carefully and watch your risk heading into the week.
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🗺 Sectors & Assets to Watch
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Not all parts of the market are suffering equally. In fact, some areas are doing quite well. Here’s where we see opportunity versus caution right now:
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SECTOR / ASSET
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STANCE
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WHAT IT MEANS
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Energy
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OPPORTUNITY
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Oil companies still thriving despite the week’s crude pullback; sector up approximately 55% YTD
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Defense & Aerospace
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OPPORTUNITY
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War spending is rising sharply; these companies have strong, visible demand
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Semiconductors
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NEUTRAL+
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AI infrastructure spending remains solid despite broader tech weakness
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Rare Earth Materials
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NEUTRAL+
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U.S. military dependency on rare earth supplies creates potential opportunity
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Gold
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NEUTRAL+
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Safe-haven appeal helps, but rising rates reduce its attractiveness
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Defensive Sectors
(Utilities, Healthcare, Staples)
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NEUTRAL+
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Historically tends to offer relative stability and income potential
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TIPS / Inflation Bonds
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WATCH
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Designed to protect against inflation; worth monitoring as prices rise
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Technology / Software
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CAUTION
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Down 20% this quarter; higher interest rates and uncertainty weigh heavily
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Financials / Banks
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CAUTION
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Flat yield curve is squeezing bank profits; IPO market remains frozen
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Consumer Discretionary
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CAUTION
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High gas prices are eating into budgets; consumer sentiment at multi-year lows
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🌎 The Big Picture — What’s Really Going On
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Here are the three themes we believe every investor should understand right now:
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This week’s rally was real — but so is the uncertainty. Stocks posted their best week in over a month and the fear gauge dropped significantly. That is genuinely good news. But the fundamental drivers of this year’s volatility, namely oil, the Fed, and the Iran conflict, have not been resolved. Whether this bounce becomes a sustained recovery depends almost entirely on what happens in the Middle East this week.
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The jobs market is still the economy’s backbone. 178,000 jobs added in March is a strong number by any measure. However, those hiring decisions were made before the conflict intensified, so future reports will be the real test. Watch Thursday’s jobless claims and next month’s payroll report for a truer picture of the labor market’s health.
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Q1 earnings season begins — and it matters. Major bank earnings kick off the week of April 13 with JPMorgan and Bank of America leading the way. This will be the first time we hear directly from corporate America about how the conflict is affecting their businesses. S&P 500 earnings are still expected to grow 13% in Q1, but guidance for Q2 will be scrutinized heavily. If companies warn about margin pressure from energy costs, the broader rally could stall quickly.
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History tells us that markets have typically recovered well following geopolitical shocks, including posting strong gains 3 to 6 months after major conflicts. The path is rarely straight, but patient, well-diversified investors have generally been rewarded. We are watching closely and will continue to keep you informed.
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If you have any questions about your portfolio or what any of this means for your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative. We are here to help you navigate these markets with confidence.
Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC
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