Capital Compass | Weekly Market Update — May 4th, 2026

CAPITAL COMPASS

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER

Week of May 4, 2026  |  Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Six weeks ago, the major indexes were deep in the red and oil was surging toward $120 a barrel. This week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are sitting at all-time highs, Big Tech just delivered one of its best earnings seasons on record, and April turned out to be the strongest month for markets since 2020. The economy is growing, companies are profitable, and the job market has held up better than almost anyone expected. The road ahead still has some questions on it, inflation and the Iran situation chief among them, but the direction of travel has clearly improved. Here is what to watch this week.

* Gold is approximate. Data sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, Investing.com, as of May 1, 2026 close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

It was an enormous week for data and earnings, and the results were broadly positive. Stocks rose to new all-time highs and April closed as the best month for markets since 2020. Here is what the data underneath the surface actually showed:

The inflation reading was the one complication in an otherwise strong week. Markets took it in stride, buoyed by strong earnings and growing hopes for an Iran peace deal. It is also worth noting that this was likely Chair Powell’s final meeting at the helm of the Federal Reserve. He is due to step down on May 15, with Kevin Warsh expected to take over. That leadership transition is something we will be watching closely in the weeks ahead.

The most important number of the week arrives Friday: the April jobs report. Everything else will be filtered through whatever that number says. A strong report keeps the positive momentum going. A weak one raises questions about whether the economy is starting to feel the weight of higher energy prices.

Economists are expecting around 73,000 jobs added in April, well below March’s 178,000. The gap reflects the early impact of higher energy costs on hiring decisions. A number near expectations would be reassuring. A meaningful beat would signal the economy is more resilient than feared, and markets may respond positively. The ISM Services PMI on Tuesday will also be an early read on whether business activity held up in April.

On the earnings side, AMD on Tuesday is the name to watch. It will give investors a read on AI chip demand beyond Nvidia. Walt Disney on Wednesday will tell us whether consumers are still spending on entertainment at current prices, a useful check on the health of the average household.

The market’s recovery from the March lows has been genuinely impressive. The S&P 500 is up nearly 14% from its low point just six weeks ago, earnings season has been strong, and the underlying economy has held together better than many feared when the conflict began. That is real progress, and it matters.

The question we are sitting with is how much of the good news is already priced in. Markets are at all-time highs. Earnings expectations for the rest of the year are elevated. Oil is over $100 a barrel. And inflation, while not out of control, is moving in the wrong direction. None of that means the rally is over. It does mean we are paying close attention to the data, particularly Friday’s jobs report and the ongoing Iran situation, both of which could shift the picture quickly.

For patient, long-term investors, the message has not changed. The economy is growing, companies are earning, and history favors those who stay disciplined through uncertainty. We are positioned thoughtfully and will keep you informed every step of the way.

If you have any questions about your portfolio or what any of this means for your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative. We are here to help you navigate these markets with confidence.

Edward J. Sabo

Chief Investment Officer

Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC

Important Disclosures:

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.

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