“The number of mixed signals in this market has been elevated since the pandemic, but it’s gotten worse over the past few weeks (and especially last week). It’s almost as if the same data is looking at two different economies. Certain reports imply solid growth (Empire and Flash PMIs), while others signal a sharp slowdown is occurring (Philly and leading … Read More

The debt ceiling is a statutory limit on the amount of debt that the U.S. government can issue. If the government hits the debt ceiling, it cannot issue new debt to meet its obligations. However, this does not necessarily mean that the U.S. will default on its debt.   The Treasury Department has several tools at its disposal to manage … Read More

It’s hard to believe the first quarter is already in the books for 2023. We’ve had a much better start to the equities market this year than last, but it hasn’t exactly been a “boom cycle”. After lifting off their October lows, the major stock indices have mostly traded sideways thus far in 2023 along with the fixed income (bond) … Read More

The great debate rages on the news networks over whether the Fed will pull off a soft landing or we are heading towards a recession. It seems the talking heads all have valid points and can make a decent case for why their opinions will ultimately prove correct, but I can assure you that nobody knows the answer for sure. … Read More

The “Santa Clause Rally” is a stock market phenomenon first discovered by Yale Hirsh of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1972. Yale noticed the stock market often yields positive returns during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of the new year. Market technicians have since recognized the arrival of this “rally” often sets … Read More