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Quote of the Week
“Never bet against America.”
— Warren Buffett
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We are back after a long Fourth of July break, and it was a memorable one. This year marks two hundred and fifty years of American independence, a once-in-a-lifetime milestone worth pausing to appreciate. It feels only fitting to open this letter with the Buffett quote above. For two and a half centuries, history has been kind to those who took his advice.
Markets picked up right where they left off. The S&P 500 climbed another 1.2% last week, its fourth winning week in the last five, and remains within striking distance of new all-time highs. The Nasdaq bounced back nicely from its late-June slump, jumping 1.7% on strength in semiconductors and a huge week for Meta.
Not everything went up. Small-company stocks pulled back about 1%, and the Dow slipped after its record close on July 3. But the bigger stories underneath were the June jobs report, which came in noticeably softer than expected, and renewed tension in the Middle East that pushed oil prices back up during the week.
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Number of the Week
57,000
Jobs added in June, per the government report released the day before the Fourth of July. That is well below the 113,000 economists were expecting. Unemployment did dip to 4.2%, but only because fewer people were looking for work. This is the first real sign that the labor market is cooling, and it may take some pressure off our new Federal Reserve Chair to raise rates further.
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📊 Market Snapshot — Week Ending July 10, 2026
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INDEX / ASSET
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CLOSE
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WK CHANGE
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YTD
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S&P 500
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7,575.39
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▲ 1.23%
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▲ 10.7%
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Dow Jones
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52,637.01
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▼ 0.50%
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▲ 9.5%
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Nasdaq Comp.
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26,281.61
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▲ 1.74%
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▲ 13.4%
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Russell 2000
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2,977.81
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▼ 1.07%
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▲ 20.0%
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Brent Crude
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~$75
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▲ ~4%
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▲ ~4%
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Gold (Spot)
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$4,113.70
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▲ ~1.7%
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▲ ~7%
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10-Yr Treasury
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4.56%
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▲ 9 bps
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▲ ~66 bps
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VIX (Fear Index)
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15.03
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▼ 3.38 — Calm
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Data sources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Reuters, Investing.com, as of July 10, 2026 close. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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📉 What Drove Markets Last Week
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A lot happened in the two weeks since our last letter, so we will catch you up on the big items. Three stories mattered most:
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💼 Labor Market Started to Cool
A trio of jobs reports before the Fourth of July painted the picture. Job openings hit a two-year high at 7.6 million (still strong demand), but private hiring slowed to 98,000 per ADP, and the government reported just 57,000 new jobs in June, roughly half of what was expected. A cooling but not collapsing labor market is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been hoping to see.
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⚡ Iran Tension Flared Again
Just when things had quieted down, unclaimed airstrikes hit Iran, and President Trump declared on Truth Social that the ceasefire was over. Oil briefly jumped back near $76 before pulling back Friday. The interim peace deal appears to be holding, but the framework is fragile.
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💰 A Tale of Two IPOs
South Korea’s SK Hynix listed on the Nasdaq Friday, raising $26.5 billion in the largest-ever U.S. debut by a foreign company. The stock jumped 12.8% above its offering price. Meanwhile, SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday, less than a month after its record IPO, though the stock has slipped below its first-day trading price. Investors still want AI and infrastructure exposure, but they are being selective about which stories they buy into.
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A couple of other bright spots. The Dow set a fresh record close of 52,900 on July 3, capping the strongest first-half showing for stocks in six years. Then Meta took the baton last week, surging nearly 15% for its best week since early 2024, after Bank of America maintained its buy rating and a leaked internal memo suggested the company is improving its AI cost structure. That is exactly the kind of catalyst that could pull the Magnificent 7 back to life, which we discussed at length in our last letter. If the largest stocks in the market can find their footing, the second-half setup gets even more interesting.
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🔭 What to Watch This Week (July 13 – 17)
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Earnings season kicks off in earnest. The big banks report Tuesday and Wednesday, and two of the most important semiconductor names, Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML, report later in the week. On the economic front, the June inflation report (CPI) lands Tuesday.
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK
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Mon 7/13
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NY Fed Consumer Expectations • Federal Budget
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Tue 7/14
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Consumer Price Index (June) • JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi, BlackRock earnings
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Wed 7/15
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Producer Price Index (June) • Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs earnings
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Thu 7/16
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Retail Sales (June) • Jobless Claims • Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix earnings
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Fri 7/17
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Housing Starts • Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) • ASML earnings
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Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the main event. After May’s reading of 4.2%, this will be the first inflation report to show whether June’s drop in oil prices has begun to work through. A cooler number would strengthen the case that inflation has peaked. A hot print, especially in the core measure, could revive concerns about a possible rate hike later this year.
The big bank earnings will set the tone for the season. Wall Street expects strong results, but investors will be listening carefully to what CEOs say about consumer spending, loan demand, and the impact of recent tariffs on business activity. Later in the week, Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML will offer a global read on whether AI-driven chip demand is holding up.
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🌎 The Big Picture — Our Take on the Markets
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Two hundred and fifty years ago, a group of colonists decided they could do better on their own. That decision, and the country that grew out of it, has created the greatest engine of wealth creation and opportunity the world has ever seen. Warren Buffett’s reminder at the top of this letter is worth carrying with you as we head into the second half of the year. Betting against America has rarely worked out for anyone who has tried it.
The economic picture heading into earnings season is a mixed but generally constructive one. The June jobs report was a soft one, but that is not necessarily bad news. The Federal Reserve has kept rates steady in recent months, but markets have been bracing for hikes later this year based on our new Chair’s tough talk on inflation. A cooling labor market changes that picture. It gives the committee room to stay on pause, and possibly even cut rates down the road, which is what markets have been hoping for. Corporate earnings continue to grow. Consumer spending remains strong. Oil prices are still well below their wartime peak, even with the recent bump from Iran tension. And a chip giant just raised $26.5 billion in the biggest foreign IPO in U.S. history, which suggests investor confidence in American markets remains firmly intact.
Of course, there are still things to keep an eye on that could impact the narrative. The Iran ceasefire is fragile, the AI narrative is being tested by margin debt at record highs, and Tuesday’s inflation report could change the rate picture in either direction. But the broader story remains constructive. The S&P 500 is up nearly 11% on the year, small-company stocks are up 20%, and this market has now worked its way through a Middle East war, a Federal Reserve leadership change, the hottest inflation in two years, and a full technology correction, all without breaking stride. That is not a fluke. That is the American economy doing what it does.
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A year that started with real questions has produced real gains. The S&P 500 is up nearly 11%, the Dow is up almost 10%, the Nasdaq is up more than 13%, and small-company stocks are up 20%. On this two hundred and fiftieth birthday of the United States, that feels like a fitting way to say we are still doing something right.
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If you have any questions about your portfolio or what any of this means for your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your CIAS Investment Adviser Representative. We are here to help you navigate these markets with confidence.
Edward J. Sabo
Chief Investment Officer
Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC
Important Disclosures:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The statements contained herein are solely based upon the opinions of Edward J. Sabo and the data available at the time of publication of this report, and there is no assurance that any predicted or implied results will actually occur. Information was obtained from third-party sources, which are believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
The actual characteristics with respect to any particular client account will vary based on a number of factors including but not limited to: (i) the size of the account; (ii) investment restrictions applicable to the account, if any; and (iii) market exigencies at the time of investment. Capital Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CIAS) reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed may not represent an account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’s portfolio holdings. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
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